Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Core point of view: RU neutral NR neutral long side: rising RU, NR rising; RU-NR spread weakening; RU9-one-month spread continuing C structureCrouchingtigerhiddendragon2000, stronger (10); NR continues the C structure from one to two and two to three months.

Fundamentals: RU: Hainan raw material prices fell (empty), but the whole latex spot inventory decreased month-on-month + rotation storage is unknown + domestic imports fell (more) compared with the same period last year, judging the RU price volatility this week. NR: futures inventory month-on-month increase + tire seasonal accumulation (short), but the spot rubber continued to anti-seasonal inventory + Thailand raw material prices rise + domestic imports decline (more), judge this week NR price shock upward.

RU05-RU09 monthly difference: neutral bias RU9-1 month difference continues C structure, RU9-1 month difference is close to November warehouse receipt due to write-off, the historical average is between-3000 Murray 1000 yuan / ton, there is a certain opportunity for anti-hedging.

RU-NR spread: neutral short inventory is the pattern of deep strength and shallow weakness, but the room for RU-NR weakness is limited.

Thai supply: neutral raw material prices rose slightly, exports fell in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

Domestic supply: neutral Hainan raw material prices fell, rubber imports fell in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

Tyres: neutral semi-steel capacity utilization slightly decreased, inventory increased, all-steel capacity utilization increased.

Social inventory: RU neutral more than NR neutral as of May 3, light-colored rubber spot inventory is 55Crouchingtigerhiddendragon2000.30,000 tons, down 0.9 percent from the previous month. As of May 3, the spot inventory of standard glue in Qingdao, China, was 75000 tons, down 2.3 per cent from the previous month.

Futures inventory: RU neutral NR neutral short as of May 10, Shanghai Futures Stock Exchange Tianjiao Futures inventory is 216000 tons, almost unchanged from the previous month. As of May 10, the inventory of No. 20 glue futures at the Shanghai International Energy Center was 137000 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month.

RU basis spread: neutral as of May 10th, SCRWF-RU basis spread was-740yuan / ton, down 145yuan / ton from last week.

NR basis spread: neutral as of May 10, STR20-NR basis spread was-203yuan / ton, down 94 yuan / ton from last week.

Thailand: raw material prices rise and exports fall sharply

Raw material prices rise in Thailand

As of May 10, the price of Thai glue was 74.3 baht / kg, up 1.3 baht / kg from May 1.

As of May 10, the price of Thai cup gum was 55.5 baht / kg, up 1.45 baht / kg from May 1.

Thailand's cumulative exports decreased sharply in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

Total rubber exports decreased in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year. Thailand's total rubber exports in the first quarter of 2024 were 820000 tons, down 26.5% from the same period last year (exported to China: latex -, tobacco tablets -, standard rubber +, mixed -).

In March 2024, rubber exports decreased by 9.0% month-on-month, 25.0% lower than the same period last year.

Domestic: rubber imports declined in the first quarter

Raw material prices in Hainan fall back

As of May 10, the price of glue in Yunnan was 13400 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from May 1.

As of May 10, the price of Hainan glue was 13900 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from May 1.

Cumulative rubber imports fell by 18% in the first quarter.

From January to March, China's total rubber imports totaled 1.4 million tons, down 18% from the same period last year (latex -, cigarette tablets -, standard rubber -, mixed -).

From January to March, China's cumulative import of natural rubber was 530000 tons, down 16% from the same period last year.

Seasonal accumulation of lifting tires started by all Steel

The utilization rate of semi-steel capacity decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the utilization rate of all-steel capacity increased.

As of May 10, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tires was 78.85%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16%. The number of days available in inventory is 30.25 days, an increase of 2.93% compared with the previous month.

As of May 10, the weekly utilization rate of China's all-steel tire capacity was 51.58%, an increase of 7.91% compared with the previous month. The available days of China's all-steel tire inventory is 43.09 days, an increase of 1.10% from the previous month.

Month-on-month increase in inventory of all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises in April

Dark and light colors continue to go to the library.

As of May 3, China's total latex spot inventory was 262000 tons, down 0.5 per cent from the previous month.

As of May 3, the spot inventory of light-colored rubber was 553000 tons, down 0.9 per cent from the previous month.

As of May 3, the spot inventory of dark rubber stood at 828000 tons, an increase of 2.5 per cent from the previous month.

As of May 3, the spot inventory of standard glue in Qingdao, China, was 75000 tons, down 2.3% from the previous month; the inventory of mixed glue was 496000 tons, down 2.6% from the previous month.

Inventory of RU and NR increased month-on-month.

As of May 10, the stock of Tianjiao futures in Shanghai Stock Exchange was 216000 tons, almost unchanged from the previous month.

As of May 10, the inventory of No. 20 glue futures at the Shanghai International Energy Center was 137000 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month.

The increase in dark color is greater than that in light color.

Whole milk and 3L rose slightly.

As of May 10th, the price of concentrated latex was 9600 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week.

As of May 10, the price of domestic whole latex was 13500 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the price of 3L in Vietnam was 13600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the domestic market price of RSS3 cigarette adhesive is 16900 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week.

Both Thai standard and mixed prices have gone up.

As of May 10, the Thai standard price was 1670 US dollars / ton, up 20 US dollars / ton from last week, and the printing price was 1630 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the CIF price for Thailand was US $1660 per tonne, up US $20 per tonne from last week, while the CIF price for Malaysia was US $1630 per tonne, up US $40 per tonne from last week.

As of May 10, the RMB price of Thai mixed RMB was 13200 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from last week.

RU-NR weakens but space is limited

RU and NR rise, RU-NR spread weakens

As of May 10, RU09 closed at 14240 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton from last week. RU01 closed at 15340 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, NR closed at 11750 yuan / ton, up 230 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the RU-NR spread was 2495 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton from last week.

Thai punk-RU spread weakens

As of May 10, the SCRWF-RU base spread was-740 yuan / ton, down 145 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the STR20-NR basis difference was-203yuan / ton, down 94 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the price difference between Thai mixture and RU was-2449 yuan / ton, down 158 yuan / ton from last week.

Monthly difference C structure of NR and RU

As of May 10, the difference in RU09-01 was-1100 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from last week.

As of May 10, the monthly difference of NR was-85 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from last week, while that of NR was-60 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton from last week.

Author: Wang Qiyao

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