Huitong Network, May 15-- for these reasonsBestpayingplaytoearncryptogamesThe Bank of England tells us that it is now paying less attention to wage growth than it was a few months ago. This means that next week's service sector inflation data will be the single most important factor in determining whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates in June.

Whether it is a decline in job vacancies or a slowdown in private sector wage growth, there is plenty of evidence that the UK job market is cooling.

The British job market is cooling, which gradually translates into lower wage growth. This is the main conclusion drawn from the latest UK labour market data and is broadly in line with the message sent by the Bank of England last week.

It is worth noting from the outset that, as the response rate of the survey continues to decline, overall employment data-employment, unemployment and inactivity-are still considered to be quite unreliable. The unemployment rate rose to 4.Bestpayingplaytoearncryptogames.3%, but it's hard to say how much we should pay attention to this problem (maybe not much).

But this message has also been responded to elsewhere in the report. Job vacancies have fallen further, and if we look at the ratio of these vacancies to the number of unemployed, it is now about the same as the average in 2019. If we use official payroll data to measure another employment indicator, the employment data have been flat or even slightly lower so far this year.

The ratio of job vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-epidemic level.

(picture sourceBestpayingplaytoearncryptogames: ING)

This easing does seem to have led to some gradual decline in wage growth. It is true that this month's overall periodic pay indicators are slightly higher than the general consensus, but this seems to be the reason for the public sector, which the Bank of England has said is less important to current monetary policy decisions. Private sector wages are up from 8. 5% last summerBestpayingplaytoearncryptogames.4% dropped to 5.9%.

Even here, there are concerns about reliability. Wage growth in 2023 seems to have been artificially boosted after the one-time cost of living was mistakenly included in permanent wage increases. These subsidies did not reappear this winter, which now seems to have exaggerated the decline in wage growth. Although the salary data does not show a reduction in sample size, it ultimately shows the average level of workers, so the questions in the labor force survey may inject some additional volatility indirectly.

For these reasons, the Bank of England tells us that it is paying less attention to wage growth than it was a few months ago. This means that next week's service sector inflation data will be the single most important factor in determining whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates in June. Services CPI will fall on an annualised basis, but we think the risk is that the decline will be slightly lower than the Bank of England expects. If we are right, August is a better starting date for interest rate cuts than June. But to tell you the truth, we think the current situation is fifty-fifty.

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