News summary

The effect of reducing pig production capacity is gradually reflectedthebarbaccaratSupply pressure fell in the fourth quarter, and demand was peak; recently, feed raw materials corn and soybean meal have strengthened, and the cost side supports prices. The number of piglets born is lower than the same period last year, and contracts in recent months should not be overly optimistic. In 2024, the focus of pig prices is expected to move upwards, with more opportunities for 11 contracts. Zheng Mian rebounded due to favorable macro policies, with inventories at medium and low levels, downstream demand slightly improved, and fundamentals improved, but the problem of internal and external price differences still exists.

Newsletter text

[The pig market welcomes positive changes]

The pig futures market showed a strong market, benefiting from capacity reduction and demand.thebarbaccaratWith the potential, supply-side pressure is expected to ease in the fourth quarter, and with the peak demand season, the market is optimistic about forward prices. Recently, rising feed costs have driven a backlash in pig prices.

Piglet births increased month-on-month in March. Although lower than the same period last year, it still far exceeded the 2022 level, which limited the room for increase in contract pig prices in recent months. If the Eryu market performs positively in May, consider placing short orders for the 07 contract; otherwise, stay on the sidelines. Looking forward to 2024, the overall price of live pigs is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities for multiple orders in the 11 contract correction layout, and also consider the rhythm of the Eryu market and seasonal consumption changes.

[Cotton market shows signs of rebound]

Against the background of favorable policies and the overall strength of the commodity market, the Zhengmian market rebounded after last week's sharp decline. At present, the ginning factory is still actively pursuing insurance, and there has been no large-scale cutting of orders. Some funds have begun to deploy long positions based on valuation repairs. However, the unresolved internal and external price differences and the uncertainty of the global supply and demand situation in the new year have had an impact on market sentiment.

Xinjiang's planting area has decreased slightly this year, but thanks to good weather, yields and yields are expected to increase. In terms of inventory, Xinjiang's inventory is at a low level and is being de-transformed rapidly. Starting from June, we need to pay attention to the possibility of inventory speculation. The demand side has rebounded slightly recently. Some manufacturers have said that new orders have begun to be placed and the price of cloth has also increased. It is necessary to continue to observe whether it can continue.

In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton market is supported by macro and valuation repairs and is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. However, the issue of internal and external price differences and the uncertainty of quota policies are still the focus of the market. Investors need to continue to track relevant policy trends and market evolution.